Hummingbird Insight asked two separate groups of medical practitioners a separate but related series of questions on financial and medical probabilities. The questions and voting are recorded below.
Question 1
Group One were asked if they would prefer to receive $50 today or $100 in six months?
Group Two were asked if they would prefer $50 in six months or $100 in 12 months?
The results found that 39% of Group One preferred $50 today, compared to 61% who said they’d rather $100 in six months.
For Group Two, 25% preferred $50 in six months while 75% would rather $100 in 12 months.
Researcher and expert in consumer, cognitive and organisational psychology, Adrian Camilleri, said, “Question 1 showed that people were much more willing to wait six months for an extra $50 when all the payoffs were far into the future compared to today.”
Question 2
Group One were asked if they would take this bet: We flip one fair coin one time. If it lands on heads you gain $110 but if it lands on tails you lose $100?
Group Two were asked if they would take this bet: We flip one fair coin 100 times. Each time it lands on heads you gain $110 but each time it lands on tails you lose $100?
In Group One, 80% of respondents said they wouldn’t take the bet, compared to 20% who would. In Group Two, 46% said no, while 54% would take the bet.
“For Question 2, respondents were much more willing to gamble when the bet was to be played many times. But if the one-off single bet was bad, isn’t this just 100 bad bets?” Camilleri said.
Question 3
Group One were asked if they would prefer: An option offering a 100% chance of $30 or an option offering an 80% chance of $40, otherwise $0.
Group Two were asked if they would take this bet: An option that has recently paid out the following outcomes: $30, $30, $30, $30, $30, $30, $30, $30, $30, $30? Or an option that has recently paid out the following outcomes: $40, $40, $0, $40, $40, $40, $40, $40, $0, $40?
In Group One, 91% voted for the first option with just 9% opting for the second option. In Group Two, 48% voted for the first option and 52% voted for the second option.
“Question 3 showed that people were much more willing to choose the riskier option when the probabilities of each outcome were not explicitly described,” Camilleri said.
Question 4
Group One were asked if they preferred: An option that could lead to a $150 loss with a probability of 19%? Or an option that could lead to a $30 loss with a probability of 98%?
Group Two were asked if they preferred: An option that could lead to memory loss with a probability of 19%? Or an option that could lead to fever with a probability of 98%?
In Group One 60% voted for the first option and 40% voted for the second option. In Group Two, 11% voted for the first option and 89% voted for the second option.
With Question 4, we observed that respondents were much more willing to choose an option with a very bad possible outcome when considering options with financial (rather than medical) consequences,” Camilleri said.
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